WHat explains the decline in the price of oil at the moment?

The following is the answer given to me by Dr. Ahamed Kameel:

Question (Nahar): Just to get yr opinion, why the current price of oil (even commodities) is declining? I find the trend awkward and suspicious given the present global crisis. So far I haven't find satisfactory answers to explain the phenomenon.


Answer (Dr, Ahamed Kameel): Nahar, the credit crunch is effectively the destruction of fiat money. This is one absurd characteristic of fiat money...it can be destroyed, through mere accounting, particularly when people default on loans. Its like what we faced with the NPLs during the 1997 crisis.

When money gets destroyed, here dollars, the supply of it shrinks and, according to quantity theory of money, all prices particularly those priced in dollars must come down to match this shrink. This is why you notice all prices including oil, gold, commodities, homes, stock market etc are all falling.

The destruction of money is expected to bring about a global recession, triggered by a recession in the US. Accordingly the demand for oil is also expected to fall. This further contributes to the fall in the oil price.
On the other hand, the dollar exchange rate is rising because of the same reason too, i.e. the supply of dollars in forex is falling. Also note that banks are the major players in the forex market and they are getting busted. Additionally, the demand for dollars is also on the rise because many hedge funds are leaving foreign financial markets, converting back into dollars, since all are expected fall in tune with the US stock market. The demand for dollars for international trade is also still there.

Once nations absorb their losses and move on, the dollar would become a much devalued currency. A new dollar might even be introduced. Thereafter (I think by first quarter of next year) gold would start to rally again leaving dollar behind. The price of commodities would follow suit.

That's how I see it. Wallahu a'lam.

Dr Ahamed Kameel Mydin Meeran is the Dean of Institute of Islamic Banking & inanceInternational Islamic University Malaysia